OPENING:

Disclaimer: The views expressed here my mine and mine alone. I’m just opening up about how I did at gambling. I don’t recommend following me or anyone else’s advice, because there is no substitute for your own thinking and there is no such thing as an expert in this ”field”.

INTRO:

If you’re reading this, good on you. You’re already a gambler! I don’t like to gamble much, it’s never overly been my thing, but every once in a while, there was nothing like a fun bet, such as wearing a tshirt that says loser or some other lite bet that made the fuss around sports a little more interesting. Well, DraftKings is now THAT fun little bet you and your friends made, but more often. Since DraftKings has been allowed back in Maine, I decided to give it a go. I’m pretty good at picking winners in sports when I have no investment, just a random tweet, but will that translate onto DraftKings for fiscal gain?

INTRODUCTION TO GAMBLING

The first time I ever played the lottery, other than my mom allowing me to occasionally scratch her tickets for her, was when I was 18. We went back over to New Hampshire and I picked up the power ball for $1.00. I played 4 12 7 8 6 or something similar to that since it was a combination of mine and my ex girlfriend, from when I was about 11-12 ish, birthdays. Spoiler alert, I lost, hence the website and being a writer still at nearly 40. The relevance of this story is that sports gambling and lottery are very similar and a lot more than you think. If you understand the lottery, even poorly, you’ll understand this.

The basic bets you’re going to place are money line bets. This gives you odds for two teams and a number that will be negative or positive.

A negative number is an odds on favorite to win. The lower the number the more likely.

A positive number means that the team is less likely to win.

I know this is confusing, so let’s go back to pre algebra in middle school. If you recall, your teacher most likely gave you a worksheet that had a number line on it. 0 was a neutral number. Much like money, if you add +2 to +5 you get +7. Conversely if you add -2 to -5 you get-7. If you add -2 to +7 you get +5

Sports betting uses this simple principle to let you pick a team. The more you place on the long shot, the more you win. Why? Cause the house always wins.

Palays are like pick three that allow you a round robin option, but cost you more since you’re placing more bets. A parlay can be two outcomes or more, but both have to come up in your favor to win. I’m not a big fan of these, especially because my first time on the app, I accidentally made a parlay bet, thinking I was saving my receipt of my bet. Lost out on $30 dollars.

This is all we’re going to focus on. Since a lot of the other stuff is mostly bs in my mind. Like bidding on who gets the first touchdown? That’s like asking who made rain. You’ll drive yourself mad at the philosophy surrounding it.

The other reason to ignore it is that, even though being Pete Rose is frowned upon, players still probably play attention to the odds against them. All of them? No, but I’m sure more than enough. You also have to remember that these people get paid to play, not make us gambling folk rich. Tom Brady doesn’t care if he tossed to Gronk or someone else, so long as it gets in the end zone. If someone was to have told him he often tossed to Gronk more often than not, this could provocate Tom to reverse his strategy and put someone else in the end zone. Not because he doesn’t want you to double your money, but because he wants to double his own. Betting on these bets is like asking a random chick on the street to flash you. The majority of us are getting shut down.

So since we got those two things out of the way, let’s look at my record. I’m evenly matched at about 18 loses to 20 wins. It’s almost a 1:1 ratio. Given this is sports betting, I probably should not be this neck and neck. We’re going to go over what constitutes a win vs a lose and how to treat sports betting as a decent way to make money.

Winning means, traditionally that everything went in your favor. That said, in sports betting a win can be a short term gain, even if the team doesn’t pull out. DraftKings gives you the option to cash out before the outcome of the game. One such time I should have did this was with the Vikings. last minute and the other team wins by one point. Seriously? I cashed out too early on another game and left a small amount of money on the table, but still more than I like. Unlike your typical minimum wage job, unless you’re fired or die, you’re not going to miss out on an hours worth of work due to a dickhead misshap like that.

So, my personal thoughts on cash out is two fold. First, don’t treat it like stocks and cash out cause your team isn’t winning. It’s difficult, given it’s your money that you’re losing.

Second is to wait until it’s worth pulling out.

These seem to conflict, so I’ll elucidate on it.

The SA Spurs play well, but they have a record of choking at the end. This habit has cost them and me too much. Since DraftKings let’s you cash out, keeping this in mind would be a good Idea not to get greedy and wait til the end. If you doubled your bet, you’re winning.

The other is that in certain games, like the NFL, you’re not down until it’s 1:51 in the fourth quarter and the other team is at your 5 yard line. Then you’re probably going to want to cash out. Could your team turn it around? Sure, the 2004 Red Sox did, but you don’t know your team is the 04 Sox’s until you know it’s Tessie time.

TL;DR Basically don’t get greedy. It’s ok to just double your money after two quarters and pay the safe bet tax of leaving some money on the table instead of losing it all, just don’t do it out of fear.

PICKING TEAMS:

When it comes to picking teams, we all want to cheer our favorite, but our favorites aren’t always the best and don’t yield a result. Case in point, me bidding on the Orlando magic over the home region team with the best record.

When I was younger I didn’t like really watching sports. I didn’t like the home region teams either. My favorite part of sports was shooting hoops in my backyard or tossing a ball around with family. I also liked collecting sports cards to make money on.

DraftKings is like collecting sports cards for adults and much like in my youth I don’t want to just settle for the home region teams because they’re very good teams outside of your region.

Most my alternate teams were southern when I was a kid. Loved the panthers, loved Orlando. My taste changes with the NHL. Liked the Sharks and the mighty ducks based team. When it comes to the MBL I was pretty much a Red Sox only guy, but I did rock a Cleveland Indians jersey in my teens, but mostly as a Drew Carey Show reference.

As an adult, we can’t be petty localists. We have to accept that some teams are, actually better than our own. It’s more likely to rain diamonds before most sports fans will admit this fact, but those of us that want to get a consistent payback from sports betting can be better than that.

My teams in Football this season

Cleveland Browns

C. Bengals

These teams were always meat and potatoes in my youth. Nothing special, but they played well, just never likely to advanced to a major game. In the last couple of years, they have drastically pulled around and look great. Except for one weekend, Ohio has been very good to me when it comes to payoffs.

The Bears and Packers each gave me a win and much like Ohio, they are solid teams that win.

My NBA Teams

Orlando Magic has been my best team so far. I like the Cavilers, who would have won me a good amount had I bet on a few games that I could not, due to financial restrictions. I also like the Bulls, who are having a horrible season, but have historically been a very successful team, along with the lakers. Also, obligatory “Go Boston!”.

My NHL Teams

NJ Devils

B. Bruins

SJ Sharks

Ann. Ducks

While not playing the best this season, each team has always been solid.

MLB Teams

B. Red Sox

Yankees

Cle. Guardians

As three of the best teams to look at. Yankees suck over heah if you’re a New Englandah. They always play well though. Personally, I think Ohio gonna hit the 2024 series this year.

TL:DR when gambling look for teams that play well and have had an overall brand that has been well established for years.

WHAT TO GAMBLE ON:

Even though the devil’s won me 22 bucks, hockey has become terrible. When I was a kid, games were often like the NY Rangers. 7-12 games more or less always happen. Now it’s nothing happening until quarter three and someone gets lucky. Sports betting should not be like your high school sex life, when you get lucky that one time. I don’t like hockey betting. Would not recommend it.

NFL is good. Games are tough, but give yield to less random results, barring injury. It’s possible to build a strategy on gambling here.

NBA is great for quick games and making money early on, but so far, while I’ve done well enough to keep playing on DraftKings, my NFL bets have produced better money.

POINT SCORES:

I personally do not like point bets. Yes there is a pattern and I have made those bets, but let’s look at one of my best days for sports guesses.

If we look at me trying that in basketball with scores, which are typically under 225 total points, well…

I got absolutely zero right. Thankfully it was just a buck. I highly do not recommend that.

SPREAD

I’m not experimenting much with this, so I don’t really have an opinion on this.

CONCLUSION:

Gambling can be exciting and rewarding. With some luck, maybe you can turn it into a full time job. These are just my personal opinions on where I think I dropped the ball with my own and maybe someone out there can benefit by catching themselves before hand. Always play responsibly and remember that it is about fun at the end of the day and bagging on people on Twitter.